If you’re looking into betting on UFC 209, you might be searching for some live dogs to really stretch that bank roll. UFC 209 is in my opinion filled with very evenly matched fights. Still; however, I feel like there is some possible value in these 3 underdogs heading into UFC 209.
Mirsad Bektic vs Darren Elkins
Best Fight Odds shows odds on many of the most widely used sports books, in this fight Elkins is overwhelmingly a 4 to 1 underdog and a 5 to 1 underdog in some others. It’s insane to me that the line on this fight is so high on Bektic.
Yes, Bektic is a top notch prospect in the featherweight division but he’s matched against a guy who essentially has the same fighting style and has been matched up with some of the toughest in the division. With the experience that Elkins possess and an unbreakable will, it’s impossible to see how the line is so heavily in favor of Bektic.
Now with that being said, Bektic in my opinion should come out with the win here but he will undoubtedly be put in situations where he is on the defensive and 1 or 2 solid moments that go for Elkins can easily sway a decision.
With the lines being what they are, one stands to throw a half unit or a unit on Elkins just in case he comes in and has the fight of his life against a legit up and coming prospect in Bektic.
To make this clear, Elkins absolutely has a path to victory in this fight and at $100 to win almost $500. That deserves some serious thought.
Lando Vannata vs David Teymur
Lando Vannata quickly became a fan favorite when he stepped in to fight “El Cucuy” on 2 weeks notice for his UFC Debut. Giving Tony Ferguson damn near all he could handle, he came very close to beating an absolute monster and elite fighter in the UFC Lightweight division.
In his next fight he shut the lights out on John Makdesi via spinning wheel kick ala Edson Barbsosa which in my opinion actually landed cleaner right on the jaw. Regardless, the kick was spectacular.
Looking flawless in his win agains Makdesi, and taking Tony Ferguson to the brink of defeat makes Lando Vannata a moderate favorite in his fight against David Teymur.
The lines on Teymur have him at a steady 3 to 1 underdog coming into this fight – and for good reason. Did you read what I had to say about Lando Vannata?
So how can David Teymur upset Vannata?
A foggy path to victory exists here in my opinion. Teymur is a world class kick boxer with very clean and technical stand up. A kickboxing fight seems inevitable here and the longer this fight goes, the more of a chance Teymur has to utilize his kickboxing style landing points against Vannata.
If we see Vannata throw caution to the wind with his head movement as we saw against Ferguson and similarly in his fights outside the UFC he could get picked apart going into the later parts of round 2 continuing in the 3rd where Teymur could snatch a victory.
As my predictions with Bektic and Elkins, I expect Vannata to win, but there might be some value in this fight if you’re feeling up to a unit to win 3.
Rashad Evans vs Dan Kelly
The most live of the live dogs in my opinion is Dan Kelly. I’m impressed with his commitment to take the fight to the ground and make his opponents miserable. Similarly to Elkins, he pretty much has 1 intention of getting his opponents to the ground.
The main question here in my opinion is – will Rashad be active enough to keep Kelly off of him for 3 rounds without Kelly looking like the aggressor for the majority of the fight.
If so, he wins. If not, he losses.
Only 1 man was able to keep Kelly from doing this – Sam Avley. He had to knock him unconscious though. Chris Camozzi had some success in keeping him out of grappling range for the first round but the relentless pressure to take the fight to the mat was too overwhelming.
The path to victory for Dan Kelly is to make Rashad defend take downs and fight to get back up and fight off submissions for the entire fight.
The point here is I see it more likely that Kelly is the fighter imposing their will in this fight because that’s all I’ve ever seen him do.
Rashad however, has excellent footwork – he’s light on his feet and it’s possible for him to stay outside grappling range and score points for the outside. He could catch Kelly with something hard as he moves in as well and his grappling is very good to defend take downs.
The odds here have Kelly around a +185 underdog in most books. Odds I certainly think will cash. Out of the 3 underdogs I mentioned in this article I believe Kelly will cash in this one.
Do you agree with me? Comment below to start a conversion. Stay tuned for more articles like this as well as the full breakdowns for UFC 209.